AI Prediction Markets

Live and resolved prediction markets about AI. New markets appear here automatically as they're created.

How many points will the Hacker News post ID 49078583 have at resolution_end?
How many points will the Hacker News post have at resolution?
How many points will the Hacker News post "Our position on open-weights models" have at resolution_end?
Will Meituan have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Will the Department of Defense or the White House announce an official action rescinding, waiving, or materially modifying the supply-chain-risk designation or phaseout directive applicable to Anthropic, so as to permit federal government or Department of Defense use of Anthropic's AI models or services before August 1, 2026?
Will Leonxlnx/taste-skill reach 60,000 stars on GitHub by June 23, 2026?
Will OpenAI release GPT-5.6 before July 31, 2026?
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22, 2026?
Which company will have the highest-ranked Chinese AI model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the end of June 2026?
Which company will own the model with the second-highest arena rank on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the end of June 2026?
Which company will own the top-ranked AI model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the end of June 2026?
Which company will have the highest-ranked AI model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the end of June 2026?
Which company will have the highest ranked AI model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on June 30, 2026?
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?
Which company will have the highest-ranked AI model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on June 30, 2026?
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30, 2026?
What will Melania Trump say during the AI Challenge Awards Ceremony?
Will Meta have the best AI model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the end of June 2026?
Will Baidu have the best AI model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the end of June 2026?
Which company will have the highest-ranked Math AI model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the end of June 2026?
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $300B and $400B at market close on IPO day?
Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the end of June 2026?
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Which company will have the best Math AI model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the end of June 2026?
Which company will own the #3 AI model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (Style Control On) at the end of June 2026?
Which company will have the best AI model according to the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the end of June 2026?
Will Z.ai have the best AI model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the end of June 2026?
Which company will own the best AI model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the end of June 2026?
Will Donald Trump order a federal review of AI model releases by June 30, 2026?
Will Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026?
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?
Will Anthropic's valuation hit $1.25 trillion by June 30, 2026?
What will Matt Murphy say during the Marvell CEO Keynote at ComputeX Taipei?
Which company will have the best AI model according to the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the end of June 2026?
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Which company will have the highest-ranked AI model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the end of June 2026?
Will a Chinese AI model be ranked #1 on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard by June 30, 2026?
Will a predominantly AI-generated song appear in the Spotify Daily Global Top 50 chart before July 1, 2026?
Which crypto sector will have the highest percentage return in 2026?
Will a non-human, AI-generated influencer launched in 2026 or later earn over $1 million in cumulative revenue by January 1, 2028?
Will a major social platform report over 100 million MAU for an AI twin feature by the end of 2026?
Will OpenAI publicly release a general-purpose autonomous AI agent for personal computers before January 1, 2027?
Which company's model will be ranked #1 on the LiveBench leaderboard on September 1, 2026?
Will an autonomous AI agent be listed in the top 100 crypto entities by total holdings by the end of 2026?
Will a third-party project announce a revenue-generating use case on the Somnia blockchain before January 1, 2027?
Will Andrew Ng be criminally charged in the U.S. for activities related to a crypto trading bot before 2027?
Will David Sacks be convicted and sentenced to prison for an xAI government contract leak by January 20, 2029?
Will Sam Altman be sentenced to prison in the US for charges related to a national security breach at OpenAI before January 1, 2027?
Will a feature-length film primarily generated by AI become a 'hit' by January 1, 2027?
Will OpenAI announce a new flagship model (e.g., 'GPT-6') at its DevDay event on September 29, 2026?
Will OpenAI launch a publicly available social network in 2026?
Will a publicly available AI agent from a major tech company autonomously complete an online purchase on a third-party site by January 1, 2027?
Will Ritual launch a public mainnet before October 1, 2026?
Will Cysic launch its Task Marketplace by the end of Q2 2026 (June 30, 2026)?
Will an AI-focused startup win the TechCrunch Disrupt 2026 Startup Battlefield?
Will AMD's data center GPU revenue market share for Q4 2026 be higher than its share for Q3 2026, according to Jon Peddie Research?
Will the Prophecy platform's AI assistant gain the ability to automatically place bets for users by the end of 2026?
Will the price of PublicAI (PAI) be higher 24 hours after its TGE than its initial listing price?
Will a China-based tech company's AI model rank in the top 3 on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard before July 31, 2026?
Will an AI agent autonomously manage over $1 billion in capital within DeFi by the end of 2027?
Will any Big Tech company publicly announce a mass-market consumer AI device (beyond software) between May 1, 2026 and July 15, 2026?
Will Japan's MEXT announce a nationwide curriculum reform for AI/digital skills in public high schools by July 31, 2026?
Will a top 5 NFT marketplace by volume launch a new AI-powered creator tool before June 30, 2026?
Will a startup unveil a new consumer-ready AI wearable that gains widespread media attention before July 1, 2026?
Will a major electronics brand release a consumer device featuring a 'next-generation' AI chip by the end of 2026?
Will Micron Technology's (MU) stock price reach $1,000.00 before July 1, 2026?
Will a major Microsoft Windows AI feature achieve over 50 million monthly active users (MAU) by the end of 2026?
Will a major AI lab (OpenAI, Google DeepMind, Anthropic, or Meta AI) officially announce a model with general self-modifying code capabilities by the end of 2026?
Will a major tech company (Google, Apple, or Microsoft) release a new, dedicated, built-in AI tool for vintage photo restoration by the end of 2026?
Will Google announce a new AI product before June 10, 2026?
Will any single AI model outperform human expert baselines on all major, publicly-tracked Natural Language Processing (NLP) benchmarks by the end of 2026?
Will OpenAI publicly release a model with real-time video generation capabilities before July 1, 2026?
Will Intel's (INTC) stock closing price be at or above $115.00 on any trading day before October 1, 2026?
Will the price of USD.AI (CHIP) reach $0.10 by the end of June 2026?
Will China's Ministry of Education issue official guidelines for integrating Generative AI in higher education by year-end 2026?
Will Apple announce a formal partnership with Google for Gemini integration at WWDC 2026?
Will Somnia officially launch its 'Prediction Markets & AI Features' on its mainnet before January 1, 2027?
Will the U.S. Senate pass a comprehensive federal bill primarily focused on regulating Artificial Intelligence by December 31, 2026?
Will the total market capitalization of CoinGecko's 'AI & Big Data' category be over $50 billion on January 1, 2027?
Will any humanoid robot be commercially sold to households during the calendar year 2027?
Will the global decentralized computing market size for 2027 be reported as over $15 billion?
Will xAI's Grok 5 be released to the public by January 1, 2027?
Will more than 25% of on-chain transactions on any major blockchain be classified as 'non-financial utility' for any full calendar month in 2027?
Will the total cumulative frames rendered on the Render Network exceed 85 million by October 1, 2026?
Will an AI agent account for more than 50% of the total trading volume on Prophecy Social in a single 24-hour period before August 2026?
Will a major social network launch a dedicated 'AI-only profiles' feature by the end of 2027?
Which topic will have a higher average global search interest on Google Trends in 2026: 'Artificial intelligence' or 'Bitcoin'?
Will more than 10 million people be using AI agents to automatically manage their crypto portfolios by the end of 2028?
Will a company operated by a single person and powered primarily by AI achieve a verifiable annual revenue of at least $100 million before 2030?
Will a new AI token enter the top 100 by market cap by the end of Q2 2026?
Will the global household robot market size exceed $18 billion in 2026?
Will the CoinGecko 'Artificial Intelligence (AI)' token category outperform the Total Crypto Market Cap in 2026?
Will an AI system autonomously pass a full, multi-stage FAANG-style software engineering interview and receive a verifiable job offer by the end of 2027?
Will Netflix release a fully AI-generated series before January 1, 2027?
Will OpenAI release a new GPT model beyond GPT-5 before December 2026?
Will a 'popular creator' be a founder of an AI company that achieves a $1B+ valuation in 2026?
Will the world's single best-selling smartphone model in 2026 be an 'AI Phone'?
By which period will a major market analysis firm first report that the global memory chip shortage has eased?